Obviously it isn’t going to get better with Russia is persona non grata.
Putin won’t admit his losses, and he won’t give in until he has what he’s after, and until a point and time, if such a point and time would come, Nato won’t do much and oil will flow. We resolve ourselves to the fact the Nato is not going to do much more than supply a limited range of military aid to the Ukraine as we watch civilians be anililated.
Refugees flee, mostly women and children and the west will absorb as many as possible. The war has a mind of its own and Russia is being forced deeply into an economical mayhem, and Putin is clearly aware of the consequences. The sanctions haven’t deterred Putin one iota and I doubt he will budge given the damage is done. At the same time the sanctions have not cut off the oil supply to Europe and as long as Putin has Crimea and strategic points of interest in Ukraine, he is guaranteed his oil flows.
The Ukrainians are fighting until the bitter end, and even if they win this war, what is their fall back position after this war ends. They are sandwiched in between a Nato they cannot trust would come to their recuse, and a Russian dictator (at their doorstep) who will systematically try to always compromise the power of the Ukrainian people. And on the sidelines you have Joe Biden (half-a-man) going around talking and talking but doing very little.
Biden appears as a poor loser suggesting to Europeans to diversify away from Russia energy towards suppliers they can trust, reliable and therefore, the US commitment to provide the European Union with additional at least 15 billion cubic meters of LNG this year is a big step in this direction, because this will replace the LNG supply we currently receive from Russia. The consumption of natural gas in the European Union is near 379.9 billion cubic meters and so where does the rest come from: https://www.acer.europa.eu/gas-factsheet
As regards the origin of imports, Norway was the source of 24.5 % of the natural gas entering the EU (intra-EU trade and entries from Switzerland both excluded), followed by Russia (23.0 %), Ukraine (12.8 %) and Belarus (10.3 %) (see Figure 5). However, considering that most gas entering the EU from Ukraine and Belarus initially comes from Russia, the dependency on gas imports from this country is in practice higher than on gas from Norway.
Let’s factor into the play winter 2022, Germany and the rest of Europe will get fed up with refugees, and the longer the war looms the more plain is inflicted on all of us, and somehow Putin’s position doesn’t change very much. Yes, his people and the system gets stripped of the modernisation they enjoyed, but Putin twists this and plays off the west against the Russian people, a return to Cold War.
Russia is financially funded as long as Russia controls energy and there is no getting away from that, at least not quickly enough. The Oligarchs are mostly cut off (unless they have US passports) and there is no bringing them back to any position of power.
The new yellow brick road when Russia and China made a pact during Putin’s recent visit to China: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west
In their matching mauve ties, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping last week declared a “new era” in the global order and, at least in the short term, endorsed their respective territorial ambitions in Ukraine and Taiwan. The world’s two most powerful autocrats unveiled a sweeping long-term agreement that also challenges the United States as a global power, nato as a cornerstone of international security, and liberal democracy as a model for the world. “Friendship between the two States has no limits,” they vowed in the communiqué, released after the two leaders met on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. “There are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”
The long and short is Putin needs an international victory of some sort and he has the help of the Chinese and there is no stopping it. America can’t wage war on China or we won’t be able to vacuum our households, do our hair, or make coffee at home when our machines break.
The cake was divided and the world order is defined and split between those who support the free world and those who support their own world order. We continue to sweep the issues facing world order directly under the carpet and there is no changing Russia’s way of doing business, or the bitter taste they have for America. The Chinese detest America and Canada is lumped in after holding hostage the Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, wanted by the United States on fraud charges.
The Chinese technology executive held in Canada finally left the country after a deal with prosecutors, following years of diplomatic tensions over her fate. That escapade alone was a battle ground between the race for internet capabilities and the Chinese has the edge until America soldiered her into a corner, and by stopping the development of tower communications across the globe she was a victim of circumstance.
Some things never change and there is little hope for the west to accept the rhetoric of the East and vice a versa. We can brace ourselves for the New World Order which isn’t the typical paranoia of conspiracists, it is based on diminishing American values and weak leadership, coupled with a loss of control over the economic wars.
National security risks to America threatens our core free values, and reveal dictatorial powers overcome the new world order by waging war and threatening us with missiles of mass destruction. The ruling elite in China, Russia and North Korea lead us all to believe some part of communism was dead, and it is, yet it lives on under a new disguise.
The control of resources, computer age, and the race to we will see who can control cyber warfare effectively. The crypto mentality and international Ballistic missiles designed for nuclear weapons delivery are all being too well positioned.