The prevention of spread is all a matter of how we live and behave, and I cannot stomach the idea of anyone in 2020 keeping mammals in cages to eat, it is preposterous behavior.
The main problem is the Chinese did not manage the process of containment in a manner I consider serious and the missing doctor is another matter, but the fact a month passed until they took action makes it seem irresponsible or just the way things are in China.
So what should we expect in any wet market when animals and bats are kept live ready to be consumed. and slaughtered on the spot? The answer is a major fucking problem, which is what they have in China.
n-CoV is mostly going to influence hospitals and patients in hospitals, so China building hospitals is it really going to help? I am not so sure and it could make matters worse, and are they trying to take control, or control a patient’s destiny? A scary thought, and if you would get sick there are no antibiotics to be taken, so it could make good sense to quarantine yourself at home and avoid those places where viruses are spread easily, i.e. hospitals and clinics.
And for those elderly or who have compromised immune systems, never underestimate the influence of such virus spreading from human to human or from animals to humans. Just be prudent, use a mask when in public places and pay careful attention to the transmission via hugging, kissing, touching, shaking hands, sharing beverages, using any receptacles that are not cleaned properly in a dishwasher and hand-washed, and maintain clean hands at all times.
The Coronavirus is all about how it will mutate and the DNA or RNA of this particular genome is no doubt contagious with an incubation period of 3-6 days, and if you get it, you will likely survive but the strain and stress and the spread to your family will be really a burden, emotionally and physically.
“Emerging and reemerging pathogens are global challenges for public health. Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses that are distributed broadly among humans, other mammals, and birds and that cause respiratory, enteric, hepatic, and neurologic diseases. Six coronavirus species are known to cause human disease. Four viruses — 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 — are prevalent and typically cause common cold symptoms in immunocompetent individuals. The two other strains — severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) — are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to sometimes fatal illness. SARS-CoV was the causal agent of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreaks in 2002 and 2003 in Guangdong Province, China. MERS-CoV was the pathogen responsible for severe respiratory disease outbreaks in 2012 in the Middle East. Given the high prevalence and wide distribution of coronaviruses, the large genetic diversity and frequent recombination of their genomes, and increasing human-animal interface activities, novel coronaviruses are likely to emerge periodically in humans owing to frequent cross-species infections and occasional spillover events.”
Now the bigger question is how it will spread and no doubt outside of China they can contain it, given strict measures will ultimately be taken to confine the spread. And in hospitals, they are well equipped to manage infectious diseases due to SARS, etc. (oops I guess not!)
But in China, millions will suffer and it will be epidemic no doubt with little controls to stop it. The fact of the matter is if 1,000,000 would die due to infection, sadly it wouldn’t dent the population, and I am not sure how it will change the way the general Chinese population considers their leadership. Anyway watch this map and data: http://preventepidemics.org
And in Asia, or populated places, a mask is a good idea, and washing your hands and maintaining appropriate hygiene, and be cautious of any place where staff does not observe the protocols of good hygiene.
But to stop the spread what is key is, “epidemic preparedness areas that countries have not or only partially established. These areas could include monitoring systems that can spot unusual health reports from local clinics or trained disease detectives who can rapidly deploy when a new health threat is reported. Each country should undergo an assessment to make sure they have preparedness areas in place.”
Key Points from New England Journal
“Much of our thinking regarding the relationship between transmissibility and pathogenicity of respiratory viruses has been influenced by our understanding of influenza A virus: the change in receptor specificity necessary for efficient human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses leads to a tropism shift from the lower to the upper respiratory tract, resulting in a lower disease burden. Two primary — and recent — examples are the pandemic H1N1 virus and the avian influenza H7N9 virus. Whereas the pandemic H1N1 virus — binding to receptors in the upper respiratory tract — caused relatively mild disease and became endemic in the population, the H7N9 virus — binding to receptors in the lower respiratory tract — has a case-fatality rate of approximately 40% and has so far resulted in only a few small clusters of human-to-human transmission.”
“We currently do not know where 2019-nCoV falls on the scale of human-to-human transmissibility. But it is safe to assume that if this virus transmits efficiently, its seemingly lower pathogenicity as compared with SARS, possibly combined with super-spreader events in specific cases, could allow large-scale spread. In this manner, a virus that poses a low health threat on the individual level can pose a high risk on the population level, with the potential to cause disruptions of global public health systems and economic losses. This possibility warrants the current aggressive response aimed at tracing and diagnosing every infected patient and thereby breaking the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV.”
New England Journal Medicine Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany:https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article
A Novel Coronavirus Emerging in China — Key Questions for Impact Assessment: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2000929?query=RP
Categories: Life Cycles