Covid Math $~€~¥_?

No one knows as the world is being held, hostage, stocks fluttering mostly down and then up as all markets gt propped up, including Japanese markets propped up by BOJ.

We are worried about the countless lives being taken by Covid-19 and the economical outcome while Dr. Evil rambles on about his pandemic like a baby missing his bottle.

Right now some say the US is the safe-haven currency 25 Trillion debt topping China and by the way, China is the largest creditor ~ surprise!

The Euro is burdened with Political uncertainty, rising debts and unless the union can start to behave like a union it is doomed. Since the European Union formed in 1999 it was doomed to fail, the players have not changed a bit, and many participants simply took advantage of the opportunity to raise their own prices. I start to think the past twenty years was a waste of time and time will tell.

After twenty years Germans still cherish their beer, Italians pasta, and the others watch in hope of great pizza. Each union member focuses on the other’s failure, pointing the finger. How can you have a union if each member has a different infrastructure and balance sheet? It is obvious Germany is way ahead of most others, the union is set up for all members to act in unison but that is quite impossible. And let’s not forget the main port in Greece is owned by the Chinese. And no wonder Brexit happened, it was inevitable the English couldn’t take it anymore and I am not a Brexit supporter but it goes to show everyone is out for themselves.

I start to face the cultural differences that cannot be bridged and each step all the way we blame globalization for our own community’s problems. Globalization has tried to take a step in the right direction and we cannot survive without the socialization it provides, can we?

We see people adapting to nationalist and sadistic racist views of free world dictators and what are the choices: we can choose North Korea dictatorship, America’s incompetence, Russia’s heavy hand, or China’s genius that scares the hell out of anyone who is intelligent or realistic. We fail to realize, they are the principal players in our global economy, and anyone who doesn’t see it coming is misleading themselves, or self-fulfilling their own prophecies.

We don’t even have true and pure communism anymore, it is all fake, run by dictators watching capitalist economies trying to reach for the same dollars and that is our current state of globalism.

Compromise is all about human behavior, we think first about what serves our best interests, and then we see the rest. Government and politics, if every consumer has the price as their single most important target, we will rely more and more on Asian countries to send us the best price-performance. Human integrity is redefined and below the surface, the nitty-gritty makes up our DNA, how we act, think and behave.

Products of our own environment why have a global economy that leaves us feeling insecure? Is this the best way to solve the imbalances or see them and vote for accountable leadership? Everyone shares some common denominator, yet the differences are always the dividing line.

We blame China yet at the same time we depend on them in so many ways. I have said it before each nation must decide whether to be interdependent or dependent at to what extent and if you look at Switzerland it is a good case study.

They are in the Schengen agreement and many would say there are too many Germans in Switzerland but at the same time Switzerland is a small country with less than 9 million inhabitants, and it is divided into German, French and Italian.

They all co-exist because they live under one roof, and have a common denominator, human compassion, the Swiss people are aiming at preserving nationalism while accepting change and preserving local industry as best they can. It could be better but if you think about it there are few countries in the world with such standards.

Swiss incomes and wages are 30% higher than most neighbors, a good case study of a small country that has held onto their industry with a focus on Swissness, they sell quality and trust, and they are generally balanced even if they failed in protecting themselves against the long reach of western democracy, who has tried to destroy their banking.

When I think about article 47 and the unnecessary devastation it indicative of failed global policies. I understand anti-money laundering regulations but most governments are so two-faced. Politicians are self-fulfilling and almost every politician around the globe retires with tens of millions more than they started with.

Governments permit smoking targeted at our youth to collect tax revenue and do whatever they think will work best to get themselves re-elected.

But I still believe each person should have a right to protect themselves without harming others, gun control is necessary, and bankers like Konrad Hummler had it right. Yet when he was vocal and tried to be a Swiss Nationalist, the American government indicted all bank directors and sent them into bankruptcy only after getting a small sum of $50- million – the good old way, American style.

Wegelin a private bank was established in 1741, and the bank was closed after it admitted to allowing more than 100 American citizens to hide their accounts from the Internal Revenue Service. Isn’t that why Switzerland had Swiss accounts in the first place so anyone could keep money away from their own Government – hedging your overall risk?

A safe haven protected from the stupidity of politicians and if you consider the quality around the globe and especially Dr. Evil and his posse it is perfectly sound to have the protection of Swiss Article 47 – a safe place away from the long reach of modern-day dictators.

What a farce American government is seen as safe haven for who ~ those looking to escape their own dictators who control each and every step. Then the spy efforts operated by NSA with warrantless searches of Americans’ data. These powers allow the NSA to collect intelligence on foreigners living overseas by tapping into the phone networks and undersea cables owned by U.S. phone companies and the government can obtain data in secret from U.S. tech companies.

I am hopeful Switzerland will become a safe haven again as it was for centuries and despite the long arm of America, it remains a stable country that can still protect its borders. People are proud to be Swiss, and for the most part, are community conscious.

So when it comes to trust it has diminished over the years so we have no choice but to start to look at who we can trust. I watched a Harvard University physiatrist talk about Trump and he called him a sociopath and psychopath, a good description, he has no clue what is going on a delusional nitwit.

But this doesn’t stop each government competing to spend as much as they can to protect their economic blankets while they throw trillions at bailouts, something we’ve never quite seen before. Humans are fearful, yet forgetful and we tend to go back to our normal if there is such a thing. I guess everybody is in the same boat and so if one spends they’ll all feel the need to spend. I am not against spending and it is necessary until the steam runs out.

Failed attempts by governments and their basic incompetence in reacting or overreacting all too late. I blame Trump for his ignorance, it baffles my mind how anyone could share his dream and his ratings are higher than ever. What does that tell you?

Complete total nonsense, ababoonist at best but the question is will America under current leadership (50 states) come together and take measurable controls over the fight of Covid? I doubt it they are so fragmented and in the face of hope, we pray.

I am afraid, the more people infected in America the greater the rhetoric, hysteria, a real shit-show because many Trumpist Americans are a species unto themselves. It seems they are always mudslinging, waving guns, aggression, fake news, and the growing fast-food culture pollutes the world, the easy way is not always the best way.

If the system starts to fail, it means more dissension and more tension and more noise. The one thing about America is there are great brains and great brawn in the hands of select few. I believe individuals and corporates can make a difference, yet coordinating efforts is always a challenge.

Is it coincidence Bill Gates retires from his active duties in Microsoft, or is he one of those geniuses who see our fate and his own? One of the greatest visionaries and a man with a philanthropic heart and plenty of financial clout after being a real hardass protecting his operating territory.

We need to have people we can look up to during these times, as we so don’t forget our core values, tradition and culture, as it gets replaced with economical grubbers, robbers who create false expectations.

I cannot blame globalization, I blame each country for the mismanagement of their own resources, and where globalization failed is the arms reach of so-called “Super-Powers” harvesting and depriving us of our very basic needs, including privacy.

We all have a super level of dependence on information flow, a good or bad thing you judge yourself. What I know is we cannot live without it, and with communications massively improved how we can hold hands in a race to defeat Covid-19.

It is sad for the US at the mercy of Trump without any level of commonsense, not only a disgrace to US politics and leaders of the free world, but scary as hell when you think how much he lies, how little he knows, and small his brain really is.

I start to think about a shrinking economy dependent on GDP, and right now we have an unprecedented cycle yet in many ways mirrors the great depression except the monetary policies are very loose.

I see the first phases of an economic collapse and if you take a great depression it is frightening, to say the least. Putting aside the massive devastation and losses in capital markets we are at a time when a correction was inevitable. Stocks markets have been over-valued and continued to soar as investors pushed capital flows, and now imagine the complete opposite.

We are in the middle of a stock market crash sending Wall Street into a panic and investors are getting wiped out over the next several months, consumer spending and investments could continue to drop, causing steep declines in industrial output and what we can anticipate, rising employment as failing companies lay-off workers. This is inevitable and braces yourself for levels of unemployment we have seen in decades.  

The American economy enters a recession during the summer as consumer spending slows and some unsold goods or goods under production are delayed and channels of supply are disrupted, which in turn effects factory production. Trump gets desperate and doesn’t know what to do, so does he reach for war or just insults. When do the American people say enough is enough or is it just a farce without any real alternatives?

Investors are increasingly nervous already and selling of shares continues and millions of shares end up worthless, and investors are blowing-up, companies bankrupt and economies suffering as oil tanks.

Making matters worse, Trump refuses to abandon a trade war with Beijing that has kept import tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. With much of China and US manufacturing suffering a collapse in output, it seemed the perfect time for Washington to put aside a battle that had already slowed a global recovery.

As consumer confidence vanishes in the wake of the eventual stock market crash, the downturn in spending and investment leads factories and other businesses to slow down production and companies begin firing their workers. Especially in the US where workers are not very well protected and many part-timers. For those who were lucky enough to remain employed, wages will fall and buying power decreases.

Many economies are forced to buy on credit and government debts rise rapidly as they try to bail out companies and prop up markets and the number of foreclosures and repossessions climbed steadily.

The real telltale sign will be a change in how we perceive paper money and if governments such as the Swiss begin to stock more gold, and other countries around the world start to consider fixing currency exchange.

The reality is businesses will be fragmented and banks and the financial crisis are starting to see an impact very different from the great depression, a sudden 90% decline in certain sectors. There is no way to put a bandaid on a shotgun would and do not get fooled. Unemployment levels could go very high and if that happens we will face a kind of economic depression. A lot depends on Europe’s comeback and if the summer season cannot be salvaged then it will be a blood bath. Imagine if by May Italy does not resume to the new normal, and by that, I mean accepting their fate. This summer we won’t have any real tourist season except for the struggle of many hotel owners. Across Europe, we will see devastation as people try to recuperate and the news will drag us deeper.

Think about what suspension of all non-essential travel means what to most businesses? They will need to cut labor and all advertising costs and reduce payables to preserve their staying power. This means staff will be laid off, the only way is to cut costs and its not out of being sadistic, it’s out of survival.

There is no reason to believe that these temporary shut-downs for a few weeks or 10 weeks will bring an end to the pandemic crisis. I estimate this to run its course and we are either delusionary about the trajectory or it all boils down to managing the crisis and quickly.

The major of Tokyo should act and institute some rules but not force people indoors, but no back to school just yet as planned.

I do not see the benefits of forcing people to their homes except most can’t be managed, so it is probably better to keep everyone inside instead of allowing some outside for exercise and compromising the suppression.

In Japan, the virus is still not a major threat in terms of fatalities and we need to wait to see if all the facts are on the table, something I fear.

Categories: Cycles