Only two things matter: saving lives and rebuilding the economy. I have been scared shirtless over Covid’s effects on the global economy and I am still quite scared when I see American debt: https://www.usdebtclock.org/
but no one seems to really care, at least not yet.
The focus has changed from Covid’s nasty death toll has evolved with Ai trading and statements from Trump. Either we continue to stay in the depths of Covid, or buy our way out of this economic cycle. There isn’t much we can do and each and every government is doing whatever it takes to get the wheels moving to develop a test and possible cure.
Covidness has already tamed the minds of many investors, our focus tilts away from those nasty images of people gasping for air, to the bright lights of Trump’s macroeconomics.
America is on a path to restore their economy and in a matter of months but critics will be studying the effects of helicopter spending, the trillions spent to save and restore the economy. That is going to hurt or just get covered over in the sandbox of things to come.
In the meantime, investors are back to business and see the impact of Covid as being managed. But the false reality steps up and takes over our better judgment, and in the scheme of things it is pretty bad out there, the unimaginable still continues.
In the shadows of economic recovery and despite not nearly being over, Covid is part of our daily lives, each and every second we are learning to manage by coping with large scale events and more deaths. The second wave is coming, Covid will not go away, and testing is critical.
I do get the idea of American politics moving away from dependence on China, unpredictable starving millions of their own people based on strategical moves. Japan too, amongst the first to debase China and offer a subsidy to companies moving production back to Japan.
I believe markets will still have a good ride, at least short term because the covid news is already digested, and the curve is a short V at least for now.
The next cycles will be bumpy, and the ride will be up-down until a news cycle comes. It will likely push up markets, and Trump’s glorified news conferences keep everyone on their toes, as he defends himself hurdling insults.
The quick Covid test is th biggest short tern game changer, it will be countered by the continued earnings warnings, and which for the most part are already taken into consideration. And Trump’s focus is the economy as he says it must get better, it must.
When it starts to improve can governments effectively control and disperse billions of dollars to the public the way they are trying right now? I doubt it, so inefficient the need for electronic wallets is approaching while China is working hard to get it up and running.
Not all the details are out, but according to new patents registered by the People’s Bank of China and official speeches, it could work something like this: Consumers and businesses would download a digital wallet on their mobile phone and load the digital cash from their account at a commercial bank – similar to going to an ATM. They then use that like cash to make and receive payments with anyone else who also has a digital wallet. In the first quarter of 2019, such apps handled 59 trillion yuan ($8.3 trillion) of transactions in China, up 15% from a year earlier.
The project was started by former Governor Zhou Xiaochuan who wanted to protect China from having to someday adopt a standard, like Bitcoin, designed and controlled by others. Facebook Inc.’s push to introduce its own digital coin, called Libra, in 2020 may be speeding things up, as it could end up strengthening the dollar’s dominance – and weakening China’s capital controls.
Never forget Chinese are global citizens sending their children far away at early ages all across the globe to plant their roots. Those who doubt it, look at populations of Chinese outside of China, it is approximately 50-million.
I am willing to bet the Chinese are strategically planning how to make us pay one way or another. You cannot give the ultimate power to the communists and depend on their supply chains without suffering.
Categories: Life Cycles