We are in deep shit if this war continues much longer – so we must stop it !! …where is Gorbachev & Reagan (!!!)

If we have any chance, it requires an elite American convoy to travel to Russia immediately and meet Putin face to face. It doesn’t matter who is right or wrong we need to stop the war!!! Each side can justify their positions and we cannot solve this conflict without both sides giving concessions. Russia is run as a business and Putin is a top level operator, who spares no prisoners, and we cannot compare what he does with what we do in the West.

The same goes for China, we cannot change their electoral systems and if we try, it is a long and dusty dry road to breath. At some point America cannot harmonise the world affairs with their politics and even if they try, it will be tough to convince certain players such as Iran, China, North Korea, etc. Their ideologies aren’t even ideologies anymore as they are all capitalists, yet we cannot have them convert to our way of thinking. Their political systems, their foods and their cultures are so very different it’s like taking native Indians and forcing them to live in cities.

Anyway, I won’t post anymore for the time being on the war because it is not helping solve the problems. I added lots of details for readers to consider in making their own decisions – and in no particular order. The conflict is way deep and pointing fingers isn’t going to work. The history of the players are complex and the Russians will be Russians and the Americans remain as Americans – it is oil and water so this war and more to come is inevitable.

The Russians do not trust the Americans and the Americans do not trust the Russians and this is old news. What we learn from history is when things are tough, the Russians get tougher, and so the big question is about compromise and asking Putin for a compromise over Ukraine is getting very late! If any compromise is a possibility, it must happen now! It is a royal mess of proportions of nuclear war and we cannot sit back and watch it happen or we will all pay the price. The war raging now is about energy, territory, mis-trust, cyber space and much more. I do not consider Putin a trusted person and when you know about his past it makes sense: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1HWNcLDK88

The USA leadership is democratic now and what inopportune timing, and Putin is a definite Republican supporter and claims on his his interference are obvious. The Russians have always found some form of agreement with Russian under the Republicans and so they tried to leak damaging materials – which they did.

Hillary openly criticises Putin too many times and openly critiqued Putin calling him a Nazi and Clinton’s interfering in external Russian politics made things worse. The US officials handing out sandwiches in Ukraine during protest made him livid. No doubt Putin is retaliatory and will punish those who make him feel compromised. He is the consummate dictator, a man who has full control of his country and manipulates what people see, hear and read. I urge you to watch this:

We must try and stop the war at any cost to avoid the eventual outcome of a full scaled war. Russia is wrong, and Americans are wrong, it is a war of wrong. Russia should not be in Ukraine and destroying the lives of civilians and children and we all agree this leads to a painful outcome. The seeds pf hatred are sowing and as it stands and since the invasion of Donbas and Crimea the Ukrainians are not going to forgive and forget. The outcome looks grim but if you have a voice make it known the war is not going to solve the problems of America and Russia. They cannot be solved easily and we learn from history through leadership solving problems is about compromise and re-building of trust. The damage is done, and I have sleepless nights thinking of a ballistic missiles flying over America and reaching the target in 15-mins.

If we go back to the Cuban missile crisis and the Russians were assembling missiles in Cuban and Russia agreed to stop their existential threats if the Americans removed their missiles in Turkey, and that was the compromise. So, some way we need to find some compromise, or we will have World War III.

This interview with Gorbachev is important to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYVsKoQXATY we have reached a point in time where two super powers are at loggerhead. Russia claims the West has double standards and this coupled with frustration of the US government dictating terms and conditions mostly unacceptable to Putin there comes an opportunity, and Putin is a man of action.

I see this war as an accumulation of many years of mistrust and then in 2021 there was an important change in Russian energy, a decrease of global consumption plunged 5% leading to a crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen in 50-years. The oil sector according to Putin was unique when oil prices turned negative making it more expensive to store oil. Opec members managed to cooperate to ensure the resilience of the oil sector.

The oil demand has rebounded and output has increased outputs but the agreements between countries leads to exploration of other energy technologies is always important. Unlike the oil market it doesn’t look balanced and the key is the government are political motives. The shares of renewable energy has soared yet it favours the energy control in the hands of the west, when wind turbines increased as an alternative and there needs to more reserves and there is a deficit and hence gas increased. Higher prices are blamed on Russian policies and the consumers were not planning in advance.

February 1992 Yeltsin came to America and addressed Congress and he asked for peace and friendship.Then came the Marshall plan to develop certain things and to prevent other things from happening. In 1’000 years Russia never had democracy and so America is spending money to make sure the communists do not get into power.

The Americans had two views and the other view was to punish Russia, and 1992 Paul Wolfowitz a policy maker the Wolfowitz doctrine and was later incorporated intro the bush doctrine, and it was leaked to the newspaper. The US should never allow any country to challenge it and must remain superior and we will develop weapons and watch out for Russia and the bear may go onto it hind legs a roar again. Edward Kennedy called it imperialist document no one should accept and re-written by Cheney, not a liberal and Mr. Powell and it retained the view America and Russia are the two super powers. The attitude towards Russia is you are second rate and keep quiet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine

Wolfowitz Doctrine is an unofficial name given to the initial version of the Defense Planning Guidance for the 1994–99 fiscal years (dated February 18, 1992) published by US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz and his deputy Scooter Libby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scooter_Libby

This was evident in US policy and going back to Gorbachev who said Germany can re-unite and James Baker told him if this happens Nato will not move one inch east. The Baker Gorbachev minutes are public and Nato stayed where it was until 1996 a decision was taken to enlarge Nato Poland Czech and hungry. Thomas Friedman wrote in 1998 and called George Kennan a political mind a man who divides the containment of Russia.

George Frost Kennan was an American diplomat and historian. He was best known as an advocate of a policy of containment of Soviet expansion during the Cold War. He lectured widely and wrote scholarly histories of the relations between the USSR and the United States. He was also one of the group of foreign policy elders known as “The Wise Men.” During the late 1940s, his writings inspired the Truman Doctrine and the U.S. foreign policy of “containing” the Soviet Union.

His voice is a bit frail now, but the mind, even at age 94, is as sharp as ever. So when I reached George Kennan by phone to get his reaction to the Senate’s ratification of NATO expansion it was no surprise to find that the man who was the architect of America’s successful containment of the Soviet Union and one of the great American statesmen of the 20th century was ready with an answer.”I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. ”I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake: https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/02/opinion/foreign-affairs-now-a-word-from-x.html

This is what is said to be turning itself and the Russians reacted in 1998 Yeltsin said you promised not to do this so how do we trust you? March 1985-2007 when Putin is in power 7-years and what did Russia do to the USA. What did Russia get….enlargement of Nato, Yugoslavia bombing and undertaken by Nato the UN did not condemn it started March 24,1999 and on June 10, 1999, Kosovo and recognition of Kosovo and it part of Serbia for centuries: https://www.nato.int/kosovo/docu/u990610a.htm

Yeltsin was very angry and said we are not Haiti, we are a great country and Russia will come back, and spoke his mind. 2000 Mr. Putin is in power is elected to Presidency and he ask for Russia to become a member of Nato, and Russia was denied and was told no. Partnership in the EU for Russia was denied as it was too big.

In 2007 in Munich G20, Putin February 10 and Nato has no modernisation and it represents a serious issue and why is the expansion made possible under the Warsaw Pact. 1990 Berner made a speech: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/world/europe/11munich.html

A turning point or just a point in time when Russia was getting ballsy, and in Munich, Feb. 10 — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia accused the United States on Saturday of provoking a new nuclear arms race by developing ballistic missile defenses, undermining international institutions and making the Middle East more unstable through its clumsy handling of the Iraq war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin

In an address to an international security conference, Mr. Putin dropped all diplomatic gloss to recite a long list of complaints about American domination of global affairs, including many of the themes that have strained relations between the Kremlin and the United States during his seven-year administration

Putin “our mistake was we trusted you and your mistake is you took advantage of us.” A mistaken political decision which lead to Putin’s attitude and US policies have alienated him. A new arms race, cyber and danger of accidental nuclear launches and the possibility of a terrorist getting a nuclear weapon and cause retaliation. And finally, Russian media mainstream paints America black and media controlled by Putin shows a negative policy and mainstream American media does the same.

However there is no denying Russia and their intentions of maniuplating cyber space: Russia has artfully employed cyber operations to project national power, particularly through its GRU military intelligence service. The phrase “instruments of national power” defines power as diplomatic, information, military and economic – all are mechanisms for influencing other countries or international organizations. Cyberspace is unique as a domain of warfare because cyber operations can be used in the service of all four instruments of national power. 

Diplomatically, Russia has tried to shape international norms in cyberspace by influencing discussions on cyberspace norms and behaviors. In 2018, Russia introduced a resolution to the United Nations creating a working group with like-minded states to revisit and reinterpret the U.N.‘s rule for cyberspace, emphasizing that a state’s sovereignty should extend into cyberspace. Some analysts argue that Russia’s true goal is to legitimize its surveillance-state internet tactics in the guise of state sovereignty. Economically, the Russian “NotPetya” attack crippled international ports, paralyzed corporations, disrupted supply chains and effectively stalled the global economy – all with a single piece of code.

In the information environment, Russia is especially adept at influencing and manipulating information to suit its strategic interests. For example, Russian efforts against the U.K. have targeted its relationship with NATO by using bots to spread false stories about British troops in Estonia during a NATO military exercise in 2017. 

Notably, Russia has a pattern of pairing information with military operations as tools of national power. During previous military conflicts in eastern Ukraine, the Russian military employed cyber capabilities to jam Ukrainian satellite, cellular and radio communications. 

Overall, Russia sees warfare as a continuum that is ongoing with varying intensity across multiple fronts. Simply put, for Russia, war never stops and cyberspace is a key domain of its persistent conflict with Ukraine and the West.

I never thought Putin would attack Ukraine and watching Putin’s interview in 2021 you can see his point of view and his outlook on Nato and America. The issues which face us right now are a multitude of serious consequences we haven’t experienced in our lifetime; economical meltdown, food shortages, commodity shortages, increased Government spending on defence and much more without adding into the mix a war between Nato and Russia and bear in mind we have North Korea and China. But I still believe that is very unlikely considering the circumstances. At the same time, Cyber space technology is a definite sore spot for the Russians.

It is true China is unlikely to join in, but we never know and if we would have the perfect conditions for a WW3, China attacks Taiwan and closes the south Sea and North Korea fires some missiles at Japan, and South Korea who detests Japan and vice a versa are on opposite teams. Contemplating a total de-stabilization of the world’s economies, we know China can starve their people just as Russia can, and the evil forces close off their borders to a starving globe and these counties communist-capitalist regimes revert to a new wartime of the 21st Century.

The sad news or good news is the best case scenario is Putin takes Kyiv, and the fighting subsides. Zelenskyy is advised by Nato to regroup and Russia gets what they want without destroying the entire country. Now that what some consider a good scenario and it buys time and more destruction as Russia starves and becomes desperate and the world economy slides into hell. In the meantime, I fear the Ukrainians know if they hand over their weapons as they did once already when the USSR dismantled itself, they will not get out alive. The main problem is we are animals and we fight until the bitter end: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24937167

The main problem I see is the distribution of the wealth by Russian leadership and Chinese government with corruption interfering with the quality of life for the general public. In the West we have corruption but in general wealth distribution is more civilised.

While some believed Russians were reformed by their appetite for wealth, and to a certain extent they were, or were they? This is one question I ask myself about this war, and if you believe Putin has changed because of his greed for capitalist markets why are we returning to 1983 with fears running high about a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union. If I turn the page back to Reagan era and see how a deal was agreed with the Russians it started with trust. It is a little late now to assume if and what would have happened but looking back at Ronald Reagan’s quest for making peace with Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After

Panelists provide first-hand accounts of the 1986 Reykjavik Summit with U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and discuss how the Cold War–era meeting shaped future U.S.-Russia relations and efforts to dismantle nuclear weapons programs: https://www.cfr.org/event/eyewitness-history-reagan-and-gorbachev-reykjavik

The two men met eye to eye, with instantaneous understanding of the words that were being used, in—I think in an incident that most everybody refers to, the president in discussing under arms control—and he had already done, by the way, human rights at length in his private discussion with Gorbachev—says that: Look, I’m willing to give you, we’re willing to give you, access to the SDI technology after all of this takes place, as soon as we get rid of all of the nuclear weapons. And Gorbachev, looking at him across the table, caused all of us to drop our pencils when he said: You won’t even give us milking machine technology. Why should I think that you would give us the SDI technology? (Laughter.) And we had this flashpoint, but it was engagement at that very high level of the two men who were responsible, ultimately for these issues.

We are in 2020 and back to square one if I may call it, and worse because Moscow is fielding an increasingly advanced and diverse range of nuclear-capable regional offensive missile systems, including missiles with unprecedented characteristics of altitude, speed, propulsion type, and range. These missile systems are a critical enabler of Russia’s coercive escalation strategy and nuclear threats to U.S. allies and partners. It is developing a new generation of advanced regional ballistic and cruise missiles that support its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy intended to defeat U.S. and allied will and capability in regional crises or conflicts. Since 2015, Russia has demonstrated its advanced cruise missile capability by repeatedly conducting long-range precision strikes into Syria, and has fielded a ground-launched, intermediate-range cruise missile, the SSC-8, in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF

This is a war of a very evil person, a man of war and chutz·pah which has been in the planning by Putin for many years and we add it to his list of conflicts in an attempt to restore Russian breakup after the fall in 1991. Here we are in 2022 with a war treating global peace leaves all of us nervous and we have been heading to this cross road for the past 20 years with Russia’s aggression in supporting countless wars and destruction. Waging on its neighbours 13 wars in the past 29 years. That’s not to say that the USA hasn’t hand their hands in many war pots, but right now it proves that Russia under Putin, and not America are threatening global security: https://www.globalzero.org with nuclear threats and the fear and dislike and distrust in both countries has risen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Abkhazia_(1992–1993)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prigorodny_Conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistani_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Dagestan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_the_North_Caucasus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Republic_Civil_War

All Russians and those innocent are all being lumped together and punished, and their plight all boils down to one single leader who threatens to be the worlds’ greatest villain, but is he really a man of mass destruction who needs to leave his mark? ….I would guess if Putin is raging war against a neighbour of 40+ million people, unprovoked despite claims by some Nato forces are too close to his borders, how does it explain Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia etc. It doesn’t and he is a leader focused on consolidating power, and through war he can maintain power as long as he purports to do it in the name of his country.

There are enough Russians who admire Putins ability to co-exist with western capitalists as he develop his own war-chest of money and power. This is something Russians in general admire without realising their leadership is just a falsehood of hope. It is the same admiration Trump received, a rhetoric of a tough guy, and when you have the power of government, you can talk whatever shit you like and get away with it. The wild-wild-west meets the wild-wild east and now those civilised Europeans countries are facing some hard shit. Putin has what he needs, and now the fate of his nationalist warheads have written on them, “I eat it all, I leave nothing for you except dust”. Putin is as evil as it gets, a classic leader of the secret police, he defies all normal values and lived in an era where torture leads us to victory.

The inventories haven’t really changed much, and who needs 1’500 ballistic missiles, a pointless race of inventories given it takes a single well fired warhead to put us into the dark ages. Consider Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative was derided by critics as “Star Wars.” The US military has spent more than $200 billion in the nearly four decades since working to make that science fiction a reality. Now, after Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his vast nuclear arsenal on high alert following his invasion of Ukraine, Americans might be wondering what kind of missile defense shield all that money and effort has produced.

The US only has a limited ability to destroy an incoming nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile, a study released last month by the American Physical Society concluded. It said that “the current capabilities are low and will likely continue to be low for the next 15 years” to protect the US against a strike from North Korea, which has an estimated 20 nuclear warheads and relatively unsophisticated missiles. The Pentagon disputes the findings and says the most recent tests show the system can handle a North Korean attack.

These numbers are illustrative of inventories and it doesn’t really matter how many because one is enough. While many believe this is hogwash, and maybe so, yet the current state of affairs leads most of us to see an outcome of ugly proportions, unless Putin is executed by his own guard.

The charts below document U.S. and Russian force levels for delivery vehicles (DVs), launchers, and warheads subject to the treaty, including before the treaty’s central limits came into effect.  U.S. and Russian force numbers routinely fluctuate, such as when systems change deployment status due to routine maintenance.  The United States assesses Russian forces subject to the treaty have remained below the central limits since they took effect on February 5, 2018.

And now as we sit here in fear of deployment, the treaty as we know it has no meaning given Putin is in control of Russia and their people. These two charts are easy to understand and the warheads deployed as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a missile with a minimum range of 5,500 kilometres (3,400 mi) primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery of one or more thermonuclear warheads. Frighteningly, according to Scientists for Global Responsibility, an independent UK-based organisation, the use of just one nuclear warhead in attacking a city would be enough to render an effective medical and humanitarian response impossible.

The Kremlin has said that putting nuclear forces on higher alert was a step taken in reaction to statements from the West regarding possible confrontations between Russian and NATO troops. This war isn’t a war, it is aimed to destroy and destabilise a neighbour Putin knows he ultimately cannot control, so while he seems to be willing to talk, he has one single target, the destruction of Ukraine – not more, and taking their ports, grains and resources.

And so what about the USA wars in the last 30 years some of them and the list is long, very long and that’s not to say these wars were not justified but we see conflicts carry on and on and on:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_strikes_in_Yemen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_strikes_in_Pakistan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_military_intervention_in_Somalia_(2007–present)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ocean_Shield
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_military_intervention_in_Libya
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Observant_Compass
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Iraq_(2014–2021)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_intervention_in_Libya_(2015–2019)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014–present)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–2022_Persian_Gulf_crisis

1990–1999

1990: Liberia: On August 6, 1990, President Bush reported that a reinforced rifle company had been sent to provide additional security to the U.S. Embassy in Monrovia, and that helicopter teams had evacuated U.S. citizens from Liberia.^[RL30172]

1990: Saudi Arabia: On August 9, 1990, President Bush reported that he launched Operation Desert Shield by ordering the forward deployment of substantial elements of the U.S. armed forces into the Persian Gulf region to help defend Saudi Arabia after the August 2 invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. On November 16, 1990, he reported the continued buildup of the forces to ensure an adequate offensive military option.^[RL30172]American hostages being held in Iran.^[RL30172]

1991: Iraq: Operation Desert Storm, The Allied air to land offensive from 17 January 1991 to 11 April 1991^[9]

1991: Iraq: Operation Desert Sabre, The Allied ground offensive from 24-27 Feb 1991^[9]

1991–1996: Iraq: Operation Provide Comfort, Delivery of humanitarian relief and military protection for Kurds fleeing their homes in northern Iraq during the 1991 uprising, by a small Allied ground force based in Turkey which began in April 1991.

1991: Iraq: On May 17, 1991, President Bush stated that the Iraqi repression of the Kurdish people had necessitated a limited introduction of U.S. forces into northern Iraq for emergency relief purposes.^[RL30172]

1991: Zaire: On September 25–27, 1991, after widespread looting and rioting broke out in Kinshasa, Air Force C-141s transported 100 Belgian troops and equipment into Kinshasa. American planes also carried 300 French troops into the Central African Republic and hauled evacuated American citizens.^[RL30172]

1992: Sierra Leone: Operation Silver Anvil, Following the April 29 coup that overthrew President Joseph Saidu Momoh, a United States European Command (USEUCOM) Joint Special Operations Task Force evacuated 438 people (including 42 Third Country nationals) on May 3. Two Air Mobility Command (AMC) C-141s flew 136 people from Freetown, Sierra Leone, to the Rhein-Main Air Base in Germany and nine C-130 sorties carried another 302 people to Dakar, Senegal.^[RL30172]

1992–1996: Bosnia and Herzegovina: Operation Provide Promise was a humanitarian relief operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the Yugoslav Wars, from July 2, 1992, to January 9, 1996, which made it the longest running humanitarian airlift in history.^[10]

1992: Kuwait: On August 3, 1992, the United States began a series of military exercises in Kuwait, following Iraqi refusal to recognize a new border drawn up by the United Nations and refusal to cooperate with UN inspection teams.^[RL30172]

1992–2003: Iraq: Iraqi no-fly zones, The U.S., United Kingdom, and its Gulf War allies declared and enforced “no-fly zones” over the majority of sovereign Iraqi airspace, prohibiting Iraqi flights in zones in southern Iraq and northern Iraq, conducting aerial reconnaissance, and several specific attacks on Iraqi air-defense systems as part of the UN mandate. Often, Iraqi forces continued throughout a decade by firing on U.S. and British aircraft patrolling no-fly zones.(See also Operation Northern Watch, Operation Southern Watch) ^[RL30172]

1993–1995: Bosnia: Operation Deny Flight, On April 12, 1993, in response to a United Nations Security Council passage of Resolution 816, U.S. and NATO enforced the no-fly zone over the Bosnian airspace, prohibited all unauthorized flights and allowed to “take all necessary measures to ensure compliance with [the no-fly zone restrictions].”

1993: Somalia: Battle of Mogadishu, or the First Battle of Mogadishu, the outcome of Operation Gothic Serpent. October 3–4, 1993, Task Force Ranger, made up largely of the 75th Ranger Regiment and Delta Force entered hostile urban area Mogadishu to seize two high ranking Somali National Army leaders. Two American UH-60 Black Hawks are shot down, 18 Americans are killed in action, with another 73 wounded, and 1 captured. The events of the battle were gathered in the book Black Hawk Down, which was later adapted to a movie of the same name.

1993: Macedonia: On July 9, 1993, President Clinton reported the deployment of 350 U.S. soldiers to the Republic of Macedonia to participate in the UN Protection Force to help maintain stability in the area of former Yugoslavia.^[RL30172]

1994: Bosnia: Banja Luka incident, NATO become involved in the first combat situation when NATO U.S. Air Force F-16 jets shot down four of the six Bosnian Serb J-21 Jastreb single-seat light attack jets for violating UN-mandated no-fly zone.

1994–1995: Haiti: Operation Uphold Democracy, U.S. ships had begun embargo against Haiti. Up to 20,000 U.S. military troops were later deployed to Haiti to restore democratically elected Haiti President Jean-Bertrand Aristide from a military regime which came into power in 1991 after a major coup.^[RL30172]

1994: Macedonia: On April 19, 1994, President Clinton reported that the U.S. contingent in Macedonia had been increased by a reinforced company of 200 personnel.^[RL30172]

1994: Kuwait: Operation Vigilant Warrior began in October 1994 when Iraqi Republican Guard Divisions began repositioning within Iraq south near the Kuwaiti border. U.S. Forces countered with a movement of forces to the Gulf – the largest since Operation Desert Shield. The operation as officially terminated on December 22, 1994. Also see^[11]

1995: Bosnia: Operation Deliberate Force, On August 30, 1995, U.S. and NATO aircraft began a major bombing campaign of Bosnian Serb Army in response to a Bosnian Serb mortar attack on a Sarajevo market that killed 37 people on August 28, 1995. This operation lasted until September 20, 1995. The air campaign along with a combined allied ground force of Muslim and Croatian Army against Serb positions led to a Dayton Agreement in December 1995 with the signing of warring factions of the war. As part of Operation Joint Endeavor, U.S. and NATO dispatched the Implementation Force (IFOR) peacekeepers to Bosnia to uphold the Dayton agreement.^[RL30172]

1996: Central African Republic, Operation Quick Response: On May 23, 1996, President Clinton reported the deployment of U.S. military personnel to Bangui, Central African Republic, to conduct the evacuation from that country of “private U.S. citizens and certain U.S. government employees”, and to provide “enhanced security for the American Embassy in Bangui.”^[RL30172] United States Marine Corps elements of Joint Task Force Assured Response, responding in nearby Liberia, provided security to the embassy and evacuated 448 people, including between 190 and 208 Americans. The last Marines left Bangui on June 22.

1996: Kuwait: Operation Desert Strike, American Air Strikes in the north to protect the Kurdish population against the Iraqi Army attacks.

1996: Bosnia: Operation Joint Guard, On December 21, 1996, U.S. and NATO established the SFOR peacekeepers to replace the IFOR in enforcing the peace under the Dayton agreement.

1997: Albania: Operation Silver Wake, On March 13, 1997, U.S. military forces were used to evacuate certain U.S. government employees and private U.S. citizens from Tirana, Albania.^[RL30172]

1997: Congo and Gabon: On March 27, 1997, President Clinton reported on March 25, 1997, a standby evacuation force of U.S. military personnel had been deployed to Congo and Gabon to provide enhanced security and to be available for any necessary evacuation operation.^[RL30172]

1997: Sierra Leone: On May 29 and 30, 1997, U.S. military personnel were deployed to Freetown, Sierra Leone, to prepare for and undertake the evacuation of certain U.S. government employees and private U.S. citizens.^[RL30172]

1997: Cambodia: On July 11, 1997, In an effort to ensure the security of American citizens in Cambodia during a period of domestic conflict there, a Task Force of about 550 U.S. military personnel were deployed at Utapao Air Base in Thailand for possible evacuations. ^[RL30172]

1998: Iraq: Operation Desert Fox, U.S. and British forces conduct a major four-day bombing campaign from December 16–19, 1998 on Iraqi targets.^[RL30172]

1998–1999: Kenya and Tanzania: U.S. military personnel were deployed to Nairobi, Kenya, to coordinate the medical and disaster assistance related to the bombing of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.^[RL30172]

1998: Afghanistan and Sudan: Operation Infinite Reach. On August 20, President Clinton ordered a cruise missile attack against two suspected terrorist training camps in Afghanistan and a suspected chemical factory in Sudan.^[RL30172]

1998: Liberia: On September 27, 1998, America deployed a stand-by response and evacuation force of 30 U.S. military personnel to increase the security force at the U.S. Embassy in Monrovia. [1] ^[RL30172]

1999–2001: East Timor: Limited number of U.S. military forces deployed with the United Nations-mandated International Force for East Timor restore peace to East Timor.^[RL30172]

1999: Serbia: Operation Allied Force: U.S. and NATO aircraft began a major bombing of Serbia and Serb positions in Kosovo on March 24, 1999, during the Kosovo War due to the refusal by Serbian President Slobodan Milošević to end repression against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. This operation ended on June 10, 1999, when Milošević agreed to pull his troops out of Kosovo. In response to the situation in Kosovo, NATO dispatched the KFOR peacekeepers to secure the peace under UNSC Resolution 1244.^[RL30172]

2000–2009

2000: Sierra Leone: On May 12, 2000, a U.S. Navy patrol craft deployed to Sierra Leone to support evacuation operations from that country if needed.^[RL30172]

2000: Nigeria: Special Forces troops are sent to Nigeria to lead a training mission in the country.^[12]

2000: Yemen: On October 12, 2000, after USS Cole attack in the port of Aden, Yemen, military personnel were deployed to Aden.^[RL30172]

2000: East Timor: On February 25, 2000, a small number of U.S. military personnel were deployed to support the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). ^[RL30172]

2001: On April 1, 2001, a mid-air collision between a United States Navy EP-3E ARIES II signals surveillance aircraft and a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) J-8II interceptor fighter jet resulted in an international dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China called the Hainan Island incident.

2001–2021: War in Afghanistan: The War on Terror begins with Operation Enduring Freedom. On October 7, 2001, U.S. Armed Forces invade Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks and “begin combat action in Afghanistan against Al Qaedaterrorists and their Taliban supporters.”^[RL30172]

2002: Yemen: On November 3, 2002, an American MQ-1 Predator fired a Hellfire missile at a car in Yemen killing Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi, an al-Qaeda leader thought to be responsible for USS Cole bombing.^[RL30172]

2002: Philippines: OEF-Philippines, As of January, U.S. “combat-equipped and combat support forces” have been deployed to the Philippines to train with, assist and advise the Philippine Armed Forces in enhancing their “counterterrorist capabilities.”^[RL30172]

2002: Côte d’Ivoire: On September 25, 2002, in response to a rebellion in Côte d’Ivoire, U.S. military personnel went into Côte d’Ivoire to assist in the evacuation of American citizens from Bouaké.^{[13][RL30172]}

2003–2011: War in Iraq: Operation Iraqi Freedom, March 20, 2003, The United States leads a coalition that includes the United Kingdom, Australia and Poland to invade Iraq with the stated goal being “to disarm Iraq in pursuit of peace, stability, and security both in the Gulf region and in the United States.”^[RL30172]

2003: Liberia: Second Liberian Civil War, On June 9, 2003, President Bush reported that on June 8 he had sent about 35 U.S. Marines into Monrovia, Liberia, to help secure the U.S. Embassy in Nouakchott, Mauritania, and to aid in any necessary evacuation from either Liberia or Mauritania.^[RL30172]

2003: Georgia and Djibouti: “US combat equipped and support forces” had been deployed to Georgia and Djibouti to help in enhancing their “counterterrorist capabilities.”^[14]

2004: Haiti: 2004 Haitian coup d’état occurs, The U.S. first sent 55 combat equipped military personnel to augment the U.S. Embassy security forces there and to protect American citizens and property in light. Later 200 additional U.S. combat-equipped, military personnel were sent to prepare the way for a UN Multinational Interim Force, MINUSTAH.^[RL30172]

2004: War on Terror: U.S. anti-terror related activities were underway in Georgia, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Eritrea.^[15]

2004–present: The U.S. deploys drone strikes to aid in the War in North-West Pakistan.

2005–2006: Pakistan: President Bush deploys troops from U.S. Army air cavalry brigades to provide humanitarian relief to far remote villages in the Kashmir mountain ranges of Pakistan stricken by a massive earthquake.

2005–2008: Operation WILLING SPIRIT, Colombia – the rescue of American hostages held hostage by the FARC.

2006: Lebanon: part of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit^[16] begins evacuation of U.S. citizens willing to leave the country in the face of a likely ground invasion by Israel and continued fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military.^[16][17]

2007 – The Mogadishu Encounter, on November 4, 2007, Somali Pirates boarded and attacked a North Korean merchant vessel. Passing U.S. Navy Ships and a helicopter that were patrolling at the time responded to the attack. Once the ship was freed from the pirates, the American forces were given permission to board and assist the wounded crew and handle surviving pirates.^{[citation needed]}

2007: Somalia: Battle of Ras Kamboni, On January 8, 2007, while the conflict between the Islamic Courts Union and the Transitional Federal Government continues, an AC-130 gunship conducts an aerial strike on a suspected al-Qaeda operative, along with other Islamist fighters, on Badmadow Island near Ras Kamboni in southern Somalia.^[18]

2010–2019

2010–present: al-Qaeda insurgency in Yemen: The U.S. has been launching a series of drone strikes on suspected al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab, and ISIS positions in Yemen.

2010–2011: Operation New Dawn, On February 17, 2010, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that as of September 1, 2010, the name “Operation Iraqi Freedom” would be replaced by “Operation New Dawn”. This coincides with the reduction of American troops to 50,000.

2011: 2011 military intervention in Libya: Operation Odyssey Dawn, United States and coalition enforcing U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 with bombings of Libyan forces.

2011: Osama Bin Laden is killed by U.S. military forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan as part of Operation Neptune Spear.

2011: Drone strikes on al-Shabaab militants begin in Somalia.^[19] This marks the 6th nation in which such strikes have been carried out,^[20] including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen^[21] and Libya.

2011–present: Uganda: U.S. Combat troops sent in as advisers to Uganda.^[22]

2012: Jordan: 150 U.S. troops deployed to Jordan to help it contain the Syrian Civil War within Syria’s borders.^[23]

2012: Turkey: 400 troops and two batteries of Patriot missiles sent to Turkey to prevent any missile strikes from Syria.^[24]

2012: Chad: 50 U.S. troops have deployed to the African country of Chad to help evacuate U.S. citizens and embassy personnel from the neighboring Central African Republic‘s capital of Bangui in the face of rebel advances toward the city.

2013: Mali: U.S. forces assisted the French in Operation Serval with air refueling and transport aircraft.

2013: Somalia: U.S. Air Force planes supported the French in the Bulo Marer hostage rescue attempt. However, they did not use any weapons.^[25]

2013: 2013 Korean crisis

2013: Navy SEALs conducted a raid in Somalia and possibly killed a senior Al-Shabaab official, simultaneously another raid took place in Tripoli, Libya, where Special Operations Forces captured Abu Anas al Libi (also known as Anas al-Libi)^[26]

2014–present: Uganda: V-22 Ospreys, MC-130s, KC-135s and additional U.S. soldiers are sent to Uganda to continue to help African forces search for Joseph Kony.^[27]

2014–present: American intervention in Iraq: Hundreds of U.S. troops deployed to protect American assets in Iraq and to advise Iraqi and Kurdish fighters.^[28] In August the U.S. Air Force conducted a humanitarian air drop and the U.S. Navy began a series of airstrikes against Islamic State-aligned forces throughout northern Iraq.^[29][30]

2014: 2014 American rescue mission in Syria: The U.S. attempted to rescue James Foley and other hostages being held by ISIL. Air strikes were conducted on the ISIL military base known as “Osama bin Laden camp”. Meanwhile, the bombings, Delta teams parachuted near an ISIL high-valued prison. The main roads were blocked to keep any target from escaping. When no hostage was found, the American troops began house to house searches. By this time, ISIL militants began arriving to the area. Heavy fighting occurred until the Americans decided to abandon the mission due to the hostages being nowhere in the area. Although the mission failed, at least 5 ISIL militants were killed, however 1 American troop was wounded. According to the reports, Jordan had a role in the operation and that one Jordanian soldier had been wounded as well. This was unconfirmed.

2014–present: American-led intervention in Syria: American aircraft bomb Islamic State positions in Syria. Airstrikes on al-Qaeda, al-Nusra Front and Khorasan positions are also being conducted.

2014–present: Intervention against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant: Syrian locals forces and American-led coalition forces launch a series of aerial attacks on ISIL and al-Nusra Front positions in Iraq and Syria.

2014: 2014 Yemen hostage rescue operations against al-Qaeda: On November 25, U.S. Navy SEALs and Yemeni Special Forces launched an operations in Yemen in attempt to rescue eight hostages that were being held by al-Qaeda. Although the operation was successful, no American hostages were secured. In the first attempt, six Yemenis, one Saudi Arabian, and one Ethiopian were rescued. On December 4, 2014, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) threatened to execute the Somers if the U.S. failed to the unspecified commands. AQAP also stated that they would be executed if the U.S. attempted another rescue operation. On December 6, a second operation was launched. 40 U.S. SEALs and 30 Yemeni troops were deployed to the compound. A 10-minute fire fight occurred before the American troops could enter where the remaining hostages (Somers and Korkie) were being held. They were alive, but fatally wounded. Surgery was done in mid air when flying away from the site. Korkie died while in flight, and Somers died once landed on USS Makin Island. No American troop was killed/injured, however a Yemenis soldier was wounded.

2015: April 30, 2015 U.S. sends ships to the Strait of Hormuz to shield vessels after Iranian seizure of a commercial vessel, MV Maersk Tigris. Iran fired shots over the bow, and seized the ship registered in the Marshall Islands, as part of a decade-long legal dispute between Iran and Maersk.^[31]

2015–present: In early October 2015, the U.S. military deployed 300 troops to Cameroon, with the approval of the Cameroonian government; their primary mission was to provide intelligence support to local forces as well as conducting reconnaissance flights.^[32]

2017: 2017 Shayrat missile strike: Tomahawk missiles launched from U.S. naval vessels in the Mediterranean hit a Syrian airbase in Homs Governorate in response to a chemical weapons attack against civilians south-west of Idlib. Seven were killed and nine wounded.^[33]

2018: 2018 bombing of Damascus and Homs was launched in response to the alleged Douma chemical attack against civilians in April 2018.^[34]

2019: Operation Sentinel: U.S. Central Command was developing a multinational maritime effort to increase surveillance of and security in key waterways in the Middle East to ensure freedom of navigation.^[35]

2020–present

2020: Response to attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad came under siege on 31 December 2019 following U.S. retaliation for an attack by the pro-Iranian Kataeb Hezbollah in which four service members were wounded and one civilian contractor was killed. In response, Marines and aircraft were immediately dispatched from Kuwait for defense of the embassy and overwatch. On 2 January 2020, the U.S. launched an airstrike on a convoy, killing Iranian Quds Force Major-General Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.^[36] An additional 4,000 U.S. troops were mobilized to the region, including some 750 from the 82nd Airborne Division.^[37] In an annual report released by the Pentagon on May 6, 2020, it cited that approximately 132 civilians have been killed in 2019 as part of US military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria. The Department of Defense (DoD) added that no civilian casualties were reported under the US military operations in Libya and Yemen civil wars respectively.^[38]

2021: February 2021 United States airstrike in Syria: On February 25, 2021, the United States military carried out an airstrike on a site believed to have been occupied by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias operating from across the border in eastern Syriain response to recent attacks against US and coalition forces in Iraq.^[39]

2021: June 27, 2021, the U.S. military conducted airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias on both sides of the Iraq–Syria border in response to drone attacks on U.S. forces and facilities in the region.^[40][41][42]

2021: American military intervention in Somalia (2007–present): July 20, 2021, U.S. military airstrikes were conducted on al-Shabab militants in Somalia, the first of its kind since US troops withdrew and President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.^[43][44] On July 22, 2021, further airstrikes were conducted by the U.S. Air Force against al-Shabab militants.^[45]

2021: 2021 evacuation from Afghanistan: as part of an ongoing, multi-national effort by NATO partner countries to extract citizens and Afghan partners from the country following the 2021 fall of Kabul to the Taliban. The U.S. deployed 6,000 troops to seize control of Hamid Karzai International Airport to serve as a base of operations for the evacuation effort.^[46] The DOD confirmed on August 16 that General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., Commander, United States Central Command, had met Taliban leaders in Qatar to secure an agreement. The Taliban reportedly agreed to allow American evacuation flights at Kabul Airport to proceed without hindrance.^[47] International airlifts of evacuees had resumed by August 17 following a temporary halt to clear the runway of civilians as the DOD confirmed the airport was open for all military flights and limited commercial flights.^[48] Pentagon officials added that evacuation efforts were expected to speed up and were scheduled to continue until August 31.^[49] On the evening of August 22, Lloyd Austin, United States Secretary of Defense, ordered the activation of the American Civil Reserve Air Fleet to aid in the evacuations, only the third time in history that the fleet had been activated.^[50] On August 26, 2021, two suicide attacks occurred outside the gates of the Kabul airport, killing at least 170 people including 13 U.S. military personnel (11 Marines, one soldier, and one Navy corpsman),^[51] along with over 150 wounded.^[52] On August 27, 2021, U.S. military forces conducted a drone strike in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan on a presumed “planner” for the ISIS-K militant organization in response to the Kabul airport attack that occurred on August 26, 2021.^[53] On September 6, 2021, the United States evacuated four American citizens (specifically, an Amarillo, Texas woman and her three children) from Afghanistan via an overland route, marking the first overland evacuation facilitated by the US Department of State since the military withdrawal. The Taliban was aware of the evacuation and did not make any effort to stop it.^[54][55] On September 17, 2021, the U.S. CENTCOM commander, General Frank MacKenzie, announced that an investigation by the U.S. military of the aforementioned drone strike found that it killed 10 civilians (including 7 children and a U.S. aid worker), and that the vehicle targeted was likely not a threat associated with ISIS-K.^[56][57][58] In December 2021, in response to the errant August strike, the Pentagon stated that no U.S. military personnel involved would be disciplined.^[59][60] As of November 2021, the U.S. State Department believes as many as 14,000 U.S. legal permanent residents remain in Afghanistan.^[61]

2021: On October 22, 2021, a U.S. airstrike in northwestern Syria killed senior al-Qaeda leader Abdul Hamid al-Matar as part of ongoing anti-terrorism operations in the region.^[62][63]

A UK cabby told me he says to himself “what the fuck” when he thinks of the last two years and now more unrest, and threats of a nuclear war. Where do we go as Putin throbs and pounds Ukraine feeding us false hope. I can’t help to think what will be Putin’s end game, and what it means except and more bloodshed and contempt.

This war has no good outcome, it has no good ending and while I am stating the obvious war carries on until “we stop Putin, or he stops himself”. His aim is to destroy Ukraine and prove a point and he is on his way. How long can the west watch Putin rage war on a country which he believes doesn’t have the right to exist.

He twists facts and makes it seem as if he is fighting an imperialist war, and he knows he has full control of this war except for the fact Western allies are trying yet are afraid on interfering in risk of an all out war, a nuclear war. But thinking of the end game, these threats do not go away, and the Russia’s trust factor seems irreparable.

They are digging a deeper and deeper hole, and the options are narrowing to find an end to this pointless war. Putin sees it as essential and the Ukrainians aren’t giving up yet somehow Russia is well equipped to take over Ukraine. Even if Putin realises his chances are minimal, he won’t stop. Unfortunately his aim is to inflict pain and torture on the resistance and teach them a lesson by decimating their territory, a true dictator with an evil spirit.

The flow of resources isn’t limited to right now to oil and gas but coal and steel and other important commodities such as food. The Europeans will need some time to resurrect a strategy and implement liquid gas supplies as an alternative. No doubt gas is an important part of this fight. US and allies need to rush on liquid gas and consider how and if it is a viable alternative to Russia’s supply of oil.

Europe’s natural gas production has been in continuous decline because of production limits on the Groningen field in the Netherlands and declines in the mature fields in the North Sea. To meet demand, Europe’s natural gas imports, particularly from Russia, have increased in recent years. 

So, the million dollar question is what happens next, and it is clear Putin will not stop before he gets what he’s after, and the West will not reverse the sanctions. But will they be able to cut off the oil supply quickly enough, or do they continue to supply oil during the war. The battle is between two very determined forces; oil, natural gas and the insane expansion of Russia’s borders.

Now consider Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of global trade of wheat, used in bread and noodles to livestock feed. The conflict has closed major ports in Ukraine, and severed logistics and transport links. Trade with Russia has also been stifled by the complexity of navigating sanctions and soaring insurance and freight costs. Let’s just say this is an obvious achilles heal and Putin is fully aware of what he is doing as many importers of wheat including Japan will feel the crunch. It makes me wonder if Putin’s plan was to begin to starve-manage the food chains and supplies and the Black Sea bordering Ukraine was his target.

On the coasts of the Black Sea, across the coastline port-cities facilitated the merchandise shipping from Europe to Central Asia and faraway China, through sea roads and routes followed not only by merchandisers and travelers but also by emperors and pilgrims. More broadly, Moscow and the US see the Black Sea region as vital to its geoeconomic strategy to protect Russian power and influence in the Mediterranean, protect its economic and trade links with key European markets, and make southern Europe more dependent on Russian oil and gas. The frustration grows as Putin doesn’t have the support of Turkey and I am sure that is frustrating. This is no doubt an important tactical issue for Putin and he is landlocked without Turkey with Bosporus and Dardanelles straits the only hope for Putin and they are off limits for the time being.

When I think of the Battle of Stalingrad and the brutal military campaign as one of the largest, longest and bloodiest engagements in modern warfare: From August 1942 through February 1943, more than two million troops fought in close quarters – and nearly two million people were killed or injured in the fighting, including tens of thousands of Russian civilians. If I think of the 2008 Georgian 5-day war where Russia dominated and annexed territory or the 2014 Crimea annex, it is all more or less based on the same intentions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1HWNcLDK88

Many would argue these wars are different and while they are, yet think of the brutality of a people we know are still going full force and the have no hestitionto inflict brutality. The common denominator is Putin’s will to strategically control resources and consolidate. It is like what happens in business, except this is a hostile takeover.

Putin will continue to intimidate Ukraine’s general public into accepting the forces of Russian assaults to occupy their country and assume their strategic economic resources. At the same time impose Russian superiority to demonstrate they are a global power. There is too much at stake for Russia to lose this, and too much for Ukraine so they will all fight to the bitter end – a war which won’t finish with occupying Kyiv.

While we all know as long as Zelenskyy maintains his presence the Russian forces will destroy cities and inflict pain. In a turn for Ukraine, we are being told the Bealurus army generals do not want to get involved and their forces are not in favour of invading Ukraine. The resignation letter dated March 4 addressed to Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin, sent from Gulevich reports that the personnel of military units massively refuse to take part in hostilities and the Armed Forces of Belarus cannot complete a single battalion group.

This if its true is a good sign, and we pray Zelinskyy maintains his safety throughout the war to support his fighters moral and lead his country. In the meantime, the Russian forces are not quite doing as well as they think and we cannot verify these statistics yet we know drone warfare is very efficient. The Spectre flies alongside to identify targets before the Punisher strikes and it has 30kg of explosives.

Turkish Drones

Putin however has the obvious air superiority yet his ground forces are getting smashed apart by Ukraine’s hits but the idea of Putin losing is highly unlikely. We should keep in mind that the Russians have an estimated inventory of 500 UAVs (unmanned air vehicles), many of which are more capable than Ukraine’s. Russia is certainly using them as well. The differences are in Russia’s ability to fly and deliver hard and heavy airstrikes and that’s a very difficult road to overcome. At some point and time Nato will need to determine if and how they can support the Ukraine forces.

Much of the discussion about helping Ukraine centres on relatively short-range weapons and tactics meant to stop the invasion into the next near certainty of mass destruction. Until now Russia is bombing on a rather limited basis and while targets are civilian they have yet to give the hard hits they intend.

The quick delivery of Javelin anti-tank weapons, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and weaponized drones; or training Ukrainian forces is imperative. These approaches do not consider the decisive role that Russian air and standoff missile strikes will play. If the Kremlin orders a large-scale move on Ukraine, it is likely to take the form of a multi domain operation, beginning with air and standoff missile strikes that could prove decisive and devastating consequences. Russia cannot afford to lose the war but they can afford to lose soldiers.

This is not going as planned or is it? We see Ukraine is not conceding, or at least not yet, and the seeds of hatred are planted, so it makes us wonder what the future holds. In the meantime, Abramovich’s UK assets have been frozen as part of the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This statement is just part of where we are going with the conflicts between the rich who have Russian support.

Chelsea’s owner was identified as “a pro-Kremlin oligarch” and was said to be associated with destabilising Ukraine and working with Vladimir Putin, with whom Abramovich has had a close relationship for decades. The bottomline is these Russian oligarchs and many others are all closely associated with Russian resources and whether they are directly linked to Putin, they do not pass the smell test.

Winding the clock forward, we are all concerned about the energy crisis, and the rising costs of commodities and the overall effect on global economies. No doubt military spending will rise and all over Russian threats of nuclear war something unconscionable.

I have some worries about a desperate man, and how determined he is to secure his finger on the deployment of missiles. Many argue it is unlikely those around him would advance in deploying a ballistic missiles, or if the US and allies have shadowed his submarines sufficiently to watch if they surface to launch. These are all questions we ask ourselves and if there is deployment of any kind, where is it directed. Sadly any nuclear war means mass destruction on both sides as there are no real military deterrents.

I am not sure what to think about any leader who decides to attack the a western backed neighbour, and for those who claim Ukraine provoked Russia to attack Ukraine, it is nonsense. There are numerous debates about it, including Henry Kissinger’s opinion, and he says, “the test of policy is not how it starts, it is about how it finishes”.

That is the big question I ask myself all day long, and it’s my obsession. Putin knew Ukrainians will eventually join the west, and he was fed up with the west supporting Ukraine. But no one has answered the question as to why is it happening right now? I can guess this opportunity was based on US leadership and the fact Putin needs every 5 to 10 years to make sure the world doesn’t forget him, or his quest to grow imperialist Russia.

Is it because of Covid has ended and Putin needs his country and service men to focus on a new front, or is it because of other reasons like Putin realises his leadership is considered as weak, and he needs to expand resources outside of Russia – I doubt that. Putin is just a commoner who grew up in a communist era and it was revealed that he commanded an artillery battalion during the Soviet period, a detail of his biography that was previously unknown.

According to the Kremlin, Putin joined the KGB immediately after graduating from the law faculty at Leningrad State University in 1975. He spent 16 years in the Soviet security service, rising to the rank of KGB lieutenant colonel before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

According to the Kremlin, Putin joined the KGB immediately after graduating from the law faculty at Leningrad State University in 1975. He spent 16 years in the Soviet security service, rising to the rank of KGB lieutenant colonel before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The story of what happened in Dresden on 4 October a stabbing by jihadists was soon overshadowed by the peaceful fall of the Berlin Wall a month later. Yet understanding what Putin the KGB officer may have seen that day could hold the key to understanding how the Russian president sees the crisis in eastern Europe today. For someone who believed deeply in the cold war order, it was most likely an excruciating experience. It is clear that he returned home soon afterwards in disgust, full of bitterness that lingers to this day, with dramatic consequences. Thanks to surviving evidence from police, Stasi, and party files, as well as interviews, it is possible to trace Dresden’s descent into chaos over the course of 1989. (source Guardian)

Putin has a dark past in the old East German secret police as his identification card has reportedly been discovered in the Stasi archives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi

The card for “Maj Vladimir Putin” was discovered among Soviet-era personnel files in Dresden, where Putin served as a KGB officer in the 1980s. It bore stamps and was validated through 1989, the German newspaper Bild reported, along with a photograph of the identification card. East Germany’s Ministry for State Security – better known as the Stasi – had a reputation for being one of the most feared intelligence agencies in the world.

If you think about it, the Russian people haven’t changed much since then and what has changed is the Elite Russians dispersed all over the globe with the tentacles of Putin. And for that matter Putin too hasn’t changed much. He has the foresight to place strategically his long reach into the west, yet he wouldn’t dare to put himself in any jeopardy in fear of an assignation. So, he stays in Russia and enjoys the fruits of his country including the Siberian Altai region as a place to retreat. He has and is very careful to exit Russian soil unless it is official or if he is hidden on the super yachts of his elite trusted Russians counterparts.

Putin has used the Russian elite all over the globe while he accumulates his own personal wealth to protect his ideologies, and he has compromised his own people, the Russian way of life. A dictator who has hands in the most important commodities all over the globe. A focus on oil, gas, metals and agriculture. He planted 100+ elite brains in Europe, Asia and the Americas. The fall of the USSR in 1991 created opportunities for corruption at the highest levels of the Russian government as it set out to privatize state-owned enterprises. These elite businessmen are in sports and entertainment and have a reach in social media and whatever makes their wheels crank all mostly funded by Putin who runs Russia as his own business: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/meet-the-oligarchs-sanctions-russian-billionaires and Governments all over the globe permitted him to do as he pleases, including poisoning his enemies, opposition leader Alexey Navalny and former Russian spy Sergei Skripal. Putin is not afraid to step on the toes of international neighbours and justifies all actions in favour of his surgical derranged mind.

 
Now as Russians face an ageing army, trucks and tanks and even if they are a complete disaster as a friend reminds they have tire pressure issues in many Russian military vehicles. This is true but the war doesn’t depend on tanks and missiles, it depends on whether or not the west can deescalate the tensions, or face conflicts of potential nuclear destruction. Can and will Putin fire a nuclear arm at Ukraine, or does he fear the consequences. In the meantime Russia has drones and air missiles to bombard and destroy Ukraine. That is mind boggling and if you think about a country twice as large as Italy, and 40+ million inhabitants.

If you think about it he will do whatever it takes because he knows that Nato is not in a position to act without the commission all being in agreement, or at least the majority. The principle of collective defense is laid out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It guarantees that the resources of the whole alliance can be used to protect any single member nation. This is crucial for many of the smaller countries who would be defenseless without its allies. Iceland, for example, has no standing army. And Nato members are frozen by Russia’s attack and they cannot and will not engage Russia unless given no choice.

Russians will starve, and no one cares, and those at the top, the elite in Russia probably come to the same conclusion, ‘we are all fucked’ so it”s best to hunker down and show the west while we starve, they will starve and suffer. Any victory for Russia is based on Putin’s ability to ease himself out of this crisis, or he just forges ahead and destroys city after city knowing full well the west won’t interfere.

Do as Napoleon Bonaparte said, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” or do we step in and stop the destruction before it gets worse and risk nuclear war. A fine line between sending armaments and militarily support, or simply engaging Russia. It is kind of a joke that Russia is fighting the west on Ukraine soil and Nato and their forces are supplying weaponry without Russia freaking out. The fear of a nuclear war looms in the background and so we are all frozen because if Nato or US allies engage Russia directly, the possible outcome is a nuclear bombardment.

Russia sees an immediate impact from ll these measures – capital flight, a weaker currency, rising inflation, higher borrowing costs, and reduced access to global financial markets.  So in short what we will see is Russia just beating the hell out of Ukraine, it’s a kind of sadistic submission that Putin enjoys.

And frankly speaking the consequences of the sanctions are in place, so now it’s not a war about Ukraine’s ability to fight, it’s about Russia’s ability to sustain itself going forward and the global impact. We shouldn’t underestimate the repercussions and for now there is no way to end the war unless the Ukrainians are defeated something we all fear.
In between all of this is Governments trying to deprive the elite Russians from their yachts and luxury properties including their private jets. This is a good show but where does it lead us?

These elite Russians will get frustrated and they will become isolated but can they ultimately influence Putin by their pain and suffering? That is a fallacy, it will take much more to change the course of this war and the outcome. The interruption to the Black Sea is significant not only in the interruption of commodities is something which will likely hurt global economies.

George Cohon, who oversaw McDonald’s business in Canada from the early 1970s and into the 1990s, led the campaign to bring McDonald’s to life in Moscow. It took 14 years to make that happen and after 30 years it will all be dismantled as we enter a cyber war and no one I know wants this war except Putin.

And as icing on the cake throw into the mix China who is quietly supporting North Korean leadership to test and provoke global peace as the war rages with Ukraine. There is one word to describe North Korean and their leadership as no fools possessing the capabilities of ballistic missiles.

The Chernobyl accident in USSR was one of the worst reminders of radioactive fallout which reached France and other European borders including United Kingdom, Netherlands and Germany. This was a fallout cloud dissipating and dropping nuclear particles. The longterm consequences are unknown and were swept under the carpet, but we know there were an increased number of thyroid cancer patients: https://www.irsn.fr/EN/Research/publications-documentation/Aktis/Scientific-Technical-Reports/STR-2002/Documents/Chap04art4GB.pdf

The arms race never stops and governments fight for democracy, or fulfil their communist regimes with capitalist views dictating to the general public. The hypocrisy hasn’t changed much since the invention of mankind. It is a war of a wrong: Russia is wrong and America is wrong and Ukraine is caught in between. This is not a new story and both super powers exercise their muscle as much as possible and looking back is not going to help us much except understand how wrong doesn’t make right. And there is no denying Ukraine the right to be and act independent of Russia. The issues of war are often complex territorial matters and protecting and controlling borders is essential. Each have their own interpretation but the common theme is mistrust which translates into these wars of tit for tat. I am not saying they aren’t important matters and I am not diminishing the importance of human life.

I respect the saavy politician and strategic poise of Putin as a villain in the 21st Century and I detest his violence and gentleness strikes on civilians. I despise his distorted ways of acting towards his own people and his neighbours. The oppression and disgust of a regime who pretends to be honest when just the opposite is true. Yet all governments have their dark sides, and I am not sure where this ends unless those forces in this war, those with the power sit down and talk compromise because there are no winners only losers.

The dawn of a new age fighting economical and cyber wars with the Chinese, Russians and North Koreans ~__*